May, a month that normally sees ample active weather across the Great Plains, may go down in history for 2009 as one of the poorest on record for supercell storms and tornadoes, which is extremely bad news for the Vortex II research project that began field operations on May 10. No storms equals no data, and wasted time for scientists trying to unlock the enigma of tornadogenesis.

Currently, GFS model forecasts portray a persistent blocking pattern over the central CONUS, and a resulting north west flow regime that will keep most of the moisture from the GOM locked up at least until the end of the month.

The annual northern migration of the polar jet means that any severe weather outbreaks to occur in June will be more likely to occur in the central or high plains areas, assuming that moisture-rich GOM air is able to once again advect northward during the period.