A large upper trough progged to move into the central/southern plains Saturday and Sunday will bring an increased chance of severe weather across areas of TX panhandle,N OK, and SC KS.

A Pacific cold front is expected to sweep through N TX, W OK and SW/C KS Saturday and Sunday. At the surface, a strong LLJ will result in dewpoints in the low 70’s across much of the region, allowing initiation of scattered thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest vertical shear profiles favorable for supercell development and isolated tornadoes Saturday evening.

For Sunday, a short wave impulse ejecting NNEWD across the central plains is expected to be the focus for convective development late in the afternoon. An axis of rich surface-based moisture with SBCAPE values in excess of 2800 j/kg will exist in a narrow corridor extending NNEWD from the eastern TX panhandle to SC KS Sunday afternoon, providing increased instability as a plume of steep mid level lapse rates advect eastward.

Supercells capable of producing very large hail and isolated tornadoes are likely across the central plains Sunday afternoon and evening. However, the strenthening of an 850 MB 55 KT LLJ will contribute to increasing moistening of the boundary layer and large clockwise-curved hodographs, particularly over SC KS Sunday evg. The possibility of long-track destructive tornadoes in or near this area cannot be overlooked.

850 mb and surface maps courtesy College of DuPage

The Storm Prediction Center has issued strong warnings of the possibility for sustained supercell development and a risk of long-track destructive tornadoes in NC OK and SC KS for today and this evening.

Several short wave impulses translating through the base of a large upper trough, currently positioned over NM and W TX, will promote large scale ascent ahead of the frontal boundary over TX/OK/KS this afternoon. Continued moist advection into the warm sector of this system will likely increase later today, as an 850 MB low level jet strengthens into this evening.

As MLCAPE values to 2500 j/kg develop late this afternoon, strong heating will promote widespread destabilization. Current model guidance suggests that a favorable kinematic environment, with high helicity values and large curved hodographs will allow for sustained supercell development later this afternoon and into the evening. Significant tornadoes are possible in this environment.